Sunday, December 4, 2016

The death of public pensions


Pensions are probably the most challenging issue public finances have faced in the last century. The public warranty systems that were designed to support our elders for 20 years now have to cope with a life expectancy getting closer to 90. The whole pay-as-you-go pension models will struggle to survive.

And you may wonder, what does Artificial Intelligence have to do with this economics problem? Is a computer going to pay my pension when I retire? Unfortunately, an application is not going to pay and save for you any time soon, but there are start-ups who think they can provide better retirements, change the whole pensions’ paradigm and apply AI for designing pension schemes.

And how is artificial intelligence approaching pensions?
Behavioural Finance is the biggest challenge financial planners have to face, it is the irrational component that push us to take decisions that are not logical or based on evidence. Only very experienced financial planners are able to isolate behavioural biases out of their customers and help them successfully. Obviously, those skilled advisors are not working for public pension systems.
An Artificial Intelligence robot could sort this out. A machine planned to identify irrational patterns on savings, can tell us in 2016 which consequences  our actions will have in 2046. This robot’s intelligence would learn case after case, isolating the best saving schemes for every individual’s needs, and striking out our irrational ideas, based not only on our words and thoughts, but on the constant flow of behaviour that our digital data carries.

This whole new way of planning the future will have significant changes in finance. Efficiency will be key in the system, and public pensionscould become obsolete because of their rigidity. The AI would tell us how much we should save based on our life patterns, level of earnings, but also life expectancy, our personal health habits, the size of our family, the kind of trips we like taking, and so forth.


The main question now is; are our governments spotting this opportunity and adapting to the new paradigm before the pay-as-you-go system arrives to a violent end?.